@InProceedings{MartinsTomaRodrSiqu:2017:AsFuCl,
               author = "Martins, Minella Alves and Tomasella, Javier and Rodriguez, Daniel 
                         and Siqueira, Paula",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Assessment of future climate impacts on agriculture in the 
                         brazilian semiarid",
                 year = "2017",
         organization = "S{\~a}o Paulo School of Advanced Science on Climate Change: 
                         Scientific basis, adaptation, vulnerability and mitigation",
             abstract = "Agricultural production occurs in a scenario of uncertainties 
                         governed, mainly, by the variations in the climate. In this sense, 
                         knowledge of the effects of climate on agricultural production has 
                         become essential to ensure the sustainability of agriculture and 
                         to guarantee food and water security even in the face of climatic 
                         adversities. Such knowledge becomes more important when it is 
                         considering the projections of climate change, especially in 
                         regions which are already vulnerable such as the Brazilian 
                         Semiarid. In this regarding, to know the production and the water 
                         requirements of the crops in the face of possible changes in the 
                         climate, it is a way of anticipating adaptation actions. In this 
                         context, the present work aims to assess the agricultural 
                         production of maize for the Semiarid region of Brazil and to 
                         estimate the water requirements of the crop to obtain potential 
                         productivity, considering present and future climate conditions. 
                         The climate projections used in this work are provided by the 
                         regional atmospheric model Eta-CPTEC and the coupled 
                         atmosphere-ocean global models: HADGEM2. Regarding the scenarios, 
                         we used the RCP scenarios, 4.5 and 8.5 versions, of the Fifth 
                         Assessment Report - AR5. The projection of maize production and 
                         crop water requirements estimates will be based on AquaCrop model 
                         (Stetuto et al. 2009). Before using the climate projections as 
                         direct input to a crop model, we applied bias corrections methods 
                         to eliminate the systematic errors of climate variables and avoid 
                         an unrealistic assessment of impacts. Preliminary results have 
                         shown a satisfactory performance of AquaCrop to simulate maize 
                         yield considering the current climate. By proving the efficiency 
                         of the crop model in simulating maize yield with observed data, it 
                         is possible to extrapolate its estimates considering the future 
                         climate and, therefore, to infer about the future impact on maize 
                         production beyond the future water requirements of maize in the 
                         Brazilian Semiarid.",
  conference-location = "S{\~a}o Paulo, SP",
      conference-year = "3-15 July",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "martins_assessment.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}